Following an exceptionally busy few weeks, now is a timely moment to pause and reflect on the recent wave of government strategies and initiatives, and to consider their potential implications for the business community.
There’s an unprecedented amount of activity but just how much of it is hitting the mark and genuinely making a difference to businesses? With last Autumn’s Budget decisions now beginning to impact it will take more than a few strategies to rebuild trust and confidence.
Obviously it is still early days but business doesn’t stand still and external factors such as tariffs don’t play by the rules either. It feels a bit messy and uncertain at present but hopefully government can take its foot of the planning pedal and move into real action.
Pick a Strategy
You wait ages for one strategy - then three arrive all at once. On the heels of the Spending Review, we have seen the release of the Infrastructure Strategy, the Industrial Strategy, and the Greater Manchester Strategy.
There is far too much content across these documents to fully explore here - not to mention the several others also in circulation. What’s clear is that there’s a flurry of planned activity, concentrated around sectors that government has prioritised, and shaped by decisions from the Spending Review and, in Greater Manchester’s case, by local priorities.
While it’s difficult to dispute the intentions behind these strategies, a more pertinent question is: are they ambitious enough?
As I’ve said before given the option between a national strategy and a local one, give me the latter any day. The coming months will be important as national and local officials will be busy working out what goes where and who is leading on what part. With GM now firmly established as a devolved powerhouse in control of critical funding and decision making it is a big test of the system and its efficiency. Our job is to make sure this works for GM – its businesses and people - so expect some interesting times ahead!
Tariffs
Turning to global affairs, the ongoing uncertainty around trade and tariffs continues to be a source of confusion and concern.
Writing about tariffs is a challenge in itself - by the time you complete a sentence, the landscape may have already shifted. Recent headlines have focused on the EU–US agreement, which follows the new India–UK deal and the earlier US–UK arrangement. The temporary suspension of tariffs concludes on 1st August, and several key -agreements remain unresolved - none more so than the US–China deal, which is attracting significant attention. If agreements aren't reached by the deadline, previously announced tariffs will return, potentially creating further disruption.
While aspects of the UK–US deal may appear favourable compared to what was proposed post–‘Liberation Day,’ there’s a danger in overlooking that most other UK goods now face a uniform 10% tariff. Steel and aluminium are subject to even more punitive rates - 25% if a separate deal is struck, and 50% if not.
Add in the ongoing pain created by Brexit and it’s the equivalent of choosing whether to get punched in the face or kicked in the stomach. Unsurprisingly, many businesses are now hesitating when it comes to overseas expansion.
And frankly, that’s just not right.
Our dedicated international trade team here at the Chamber is on hand to help. They are closely monitoring the evolving trade landscape, navigating this unpredictable series of developments—many of which appear to lack a clearly defined end goal.
The Train That Still Hasn’t Arrived...
Lastly, a recurring source of frustration: transport, and in particular rail.
It has now been seven weeks since the Chancellor stood in Parliament during the Spending Review and stated: “In the coming weeks I will set out this Government’s plan to take forward our ambitions for Northern Powerhouse Rail.”
This followed a compelling campaign for a new Liverpool–Manchester rail line designed to improve capacity and drive economic growth. With strong leadership and encouraging signals from government, there was genuine optimism that the North might finally receive the infrastructure investment it needs and deserves.
Yet seven weeks on ..zilch, and with the same ambiguous phrase “in the coming weeks” echoed in both the Infrastructure and Industrial Strategies - one can’t help but question whether we are witnessing a repeat of past missteps (or plain indifference) when it comes to transport policy outside London.
With Parliament now in recess, any further announcement is likely to be delayed until September or October - assuming of course that collective amnesia hasn’t already kicked in. Technically, four months later could still count as “in the coming weeks,” though that feels like quite a stretch. Sadly, given the repeated disappointments we’ve endured over the years when it comes to transport, nothing is too surprising anymore, but it is still infuriating.
We will return to these topics over the coming weeks and months. In the meantime, for further insights, tune in to our latest Up Front podcast and comments and feedback are always welcome via email at chris.fletcher@gmchamber.co.uk.